June 25, 2026. CNBC shared an interesting report on how Ukraine is targeting Russian energy and logistics, potentially forcing Moscow to rethink its military strategy.
Kyiv’s intent is to drain the Kremlin’s financial resources, though analysts suggest this push carries the risk of triggering Russian retaliation.
Recent U.S.-Iran diplomatic discussions have pulled the war in Ukraine back into the center of international debates. Meanwhile, oil price fluctuations are creating instability for the Russian treasury.
Grégoire Roos, an analyst at Chatham House, described the recent drone strike on the Moscow Oil Refinery as having potential of forcing the Russian regime to call in a surrender, or rather, forcing it on its knees. He also argued this demonstrates Kyiv’s commitment to attacking Russia’s primary income source, adhering to international war laws.
Interestingly, the Russian regime has been targeting civilians deliberately since 2014.
Currently, Russian regime officially reports a 5.6% inflation rate, some intelligence estimates suggest the figure is actually near 15%. Roos noted that even during high-price oil cycles, Russia failed to increase production, leaving the government with little economic flexability.
Roos also expressed concern that President Putin lacks an easy exit strategy, warning that Europe must prepare for the consequences of potential escalation.
Natia Seskuria of the Royal United Services Institute argues that Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign represents a fundamental change in how the war is being fought. She contends these strikes communicate to both the Russian public and the Kremlin that the war has real, local costs.
The Russian regime wanted to demilitarize Ukraine, yet it seems like they are the ones suffering from this problem.
Further, the decision to stop fuel sales in occupied Crimea is one outcome of this campaign. Seskuria expects these supply disruptions to complicate Russia’s ability to mount major offensives during the summer.
Interestingly, Christopher Granville of TS Lombard sees the conflict entering its final stage. He pointed out that Russia’s current territorial objectives are largely confined to the remaining pockets of the Donetsk region.
This involves Russian forces achieving slowest gains in four years, while considering the losses. And since the Russian regime cannot secure its skies, situation is overall not looking optimistic.
