Two NATO members have warned Russia may be preparing a provocation in the Baltics or Poland. Not a full-scale invasion. Latvian intelligence was clear on that. But something to test the alliance. A provocation based on installing fear on the alliance members.
The warnings are quite vague. Unlike 2022, when CIA and MI6 laid out invasion plans in detail. This is different. But it comes as Russia’s offensive stalls in Ukraine and Kyiv’s drones reach Moscow. Nearly 200 hit the capital last week, resulting in black oil rained down on the city.
Putin might be willing to test US commitment, one source said. Which would make sense given that Russian regime does not see Baltics as independent states, even as they see Ukraine and Taiwan.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk went public with his concerns on Thursday, speaking after a meeting of NATO’s eastern flank leaders in the Baltic port city of Gdańsk.
The security situation is highly unstable, Tusk told reporters. Various forms of escalation can be expected in the coming weeks and months. The countries represented in Gdańsk are directly exposed to risk because they border Russia, Kremlin-aligned Belarus, or war-torn Ukraine. They will work closely on possible responses.
Tusk basically spoke of Eastern European members.
The leaders also agreed that close defense cooperation with the United States remains essential, despite strain in transatlantic ties under Donald Trump. Tusk said the American presence serves European security.
Eastern flank countries are among NATO’s leaders in military spending, with Poland planning to allocate between 6.9% and 7.0% of GDP on defense. The same position will be presented at the NATO summit in Ankara next month.
There have been waves of sabotage already. Firebombs in DHL parcels. Drones crossing into Poland last September. Nineteen of them. People in three provinces told to shelter. Worst of all, the election interferences, and the spread of misinformation or rather deception as whole, aimed at turning people against the local government.
A western military source said the danger is real. Putin under pressure lashes out. This is a period of danger, they said.
